The lobster industry is, as a whole, in good shape, Department of Marine Resources Commissioner Patrick Keliher said.

But, that doesn't mean there aren't warning signs and reasons to fret up ahead, he said March 28 to a room full of lobstermen at the Bath Maritime Museum.

Keliher has been traveling up and down the coast as part of his ongoing dialogue with fishermen.

While catch totals and yield hover at, near or above record levels, other factors, such as disease, smaller-than-expected numbers of juvenile lobsters and climate change all bear watching, Keliher and Bureau of Marine Resource Lead Lobster Biologist Carl Wilson said.

“There's a lot of good things happening,” Keliher said and made reference to the 125.9 million pounds of lobster caught in 2013 and the $364.5 million the industry made in the same time. “But, settlement's down for the third straight year and we're seeing more and more shell disease.

“The sky's not falling, but those two facts change the conversation a little bit.”

Wilson said now is an interesting time to watch lobster because of the changes, both negative and positive, affecting the industry.

“We've been in a 30-year warming period, which has been a driver (for increased lobster populations),” he said. “We're seeing empirical data showing that the ocean temperatures are rising, and the lobsters are acting accordingly.”

On a more local level, that means the start date for the season, which is anchored around molting, has shifted dramatically in the past few years. With warmer temperatures, the lobsters have been shedding earlier and prolonging the season, Wilson said.

But with the warmer waters also comes a threat that had previously left the chilly Maine waters alone: Shell disease.

“We're definitely seeing an increase in shell disease,” Wilson said. “I used to be able to say that shell disease affected less than one percent. Now, we're seeing up to four percent (of lobsters caught) with shell disease in some sectors.”

Wilson said settling data of juvenile lobsters, which can be a solid indicator of future stocks, were down in 2013.

But, whether stocks stay at high levels or taper to lower levels, it will be up to the men and women who catch Maine lobster to decide the fate of the industry, Keliher said.

“We land 90 to 95 percent of all lobster in this industry,” he said. “We control our own destiny.”