Ukraine: a local analysis
On Sunday morning, as we were sipping coffee and enjoying a day without snow, Southport Island’s Paul Zalucky was on his computer trying to figure out a way to get his cousins out of Ukraine.
“If I can just get them to Warsaw, they can stay with another cousin at his place, then get on a plane to the U.S.,” he said.
For Paul, a retired CIA agent, the TV images of death and destruction in Ukraine is personal.
It is the homeland of his relatives. His parents survived the horrors of World War II and the Nazi occupation. After the Communists took over, they put a target on his father’s back, so they moved to Chicago’s Ukraine Village.
It was a neighborhood where most residents spoke Ukrainian and he quickly developed a knack for languages. After college, he went to work for the government.
As TV images showed more than a million refugees flee from Russian bombs and missiles, Paul stopped for a moment to chat about the situation for his neighbors in Boothbay, Wiscasset and Damariscotta.
First, he lavished high praise for the Poles who have embraced thousands of mothers and children who fled their homes while their husbands returned home to fight the Russians.
“They are going to the border aid stations and just gathering up people. They are just taking them into their homes and apartments giving them a place to stay until they figure out their next move. It is amazing,” he said.
It has been two weeks since Russian missiles and artillery shells began to pound a modern nation into rubble. Paul says it will go on for a while.
“Putin (Russian leader Vladimir Putin) thought he could send in Russian troops and they would be greeted by Ukrainians holding flowers. That didn’t happen.”
“When that tactic stalled, Putin decided to pound the nation into submission with bombs and artillery, as he did in other cities, like Aleppo in Syria.”
What can the Americans and NATO do? Leaders fear if they establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine, it would trigger combat with Russian air forces and start World War III.
“We are already in World War III,” said Paul. “The Ukrainians are fighting that battle for all of us.”
Can we convince Putin to back down? Does he have a Plan B, a way to exit the conflict?
“No," said Paul. "He will double down.”
Does this mean he might use nuclear weapons?
“I wouldn’t be surprised if he used them,” answered Paul. “Remember, they recently shelled a major nuclear power plant.”
Our hearts go out to the fleeing mothers and children. We watch with horror as we see modern European cities torn to rubble. What can we do?
Paul said he is working with some friends who are trying to let the Russian public know what is going on.
Because of the government clampdown on independent radio and television outlets, the Russian people have no idea they are in a war with Ukraine. The leaders call it a peacekeeping mission. They would be horrified to learn their Ukrainian relatives are being bombarded, he said.
“We are trying to get the three million Ukrainians who have left their homeland to contact their relatives and friends in Russia. Send them messages, call, or text and let them know he is destroying Ukrainian cities.
We are trying to get the word out to the next generation of Russians, the ones who will replace the 70 year olds who are now in charge” he said.
That, and when they realize their Visa and Master Cards no longer work, they might get an idea that something bad is going on and try to do something about it.
Will that make a difference to Putin and make him change his mind?
“No. He is like a rat in a corner. He will kill a lot of people before he goes down,” he said.
Putting on his former hat as a government analyst, Paul says he thinks Putin made a mistake in ordering the invasion. Maybe his military aides and senior advisors were reluctant or afraid to tell him the truth.
And the Russian forces are using open communication channels to talk to each other. Guess what, the Ukrainian forces are listening, said Paul. That is one reason they are so effective in blowing up Russian tanks and armored vehicles.
Since he came to power, Putin has been helping dictators and grabbing territory. The Western powers have done nothing to stop him, said Paul.
He says there is a lot of blame to go around. World leaders, including Presidents Bush, Clinton, Obama and Trump did little. Biden is a least standing up and imposing major sanctions.
Putin saw the world as divided and acted. His invasion managed to unite the world like never before, said Paul.