War drums sound in Europe
It is hard to write a weekly newspaper column about world events as I have no official sources or history in that game.
But it is evident, as I write this piece, the drums of war are beating in Ukraine. That is a nation located more than 5,000 miles away from our Maine coastal communities.
American intelligence sources have gone public telling us there are 100,000-plus Russian troopers on the Ukrainian borders. On Sunday morning, CBS reported that American military officials believe Russian officials gave the invasion command. U.S. officials also revealed the invasion plans.
By the time you read this and maybe by the time I finish writing it, Russian troops may be charging into Ukraine as NATO allies and American partners try to counter their actions.
If so, TV sets, computer devices and newspapers will provide details of the actions. They will chronicle Russian air, ground naval actions, and the way Ukraine defenders will fight back.
But in our corner of the world, does all this stuff matter? After all, we are half a world away from the action. Who cares about Ukraine?
So I picked up the phone and called a local guy who knows all about Ukraine. Paul Zalucky and his wife Carole are fixtures in the Southport and Boothbay volunteer community. Paul grew up in Chicago, the son of Ukrainian immigrants who fled to the U.S. after his father, a student leader, was put on a KGB hit list.
Paul grew up in Ukraine Village in Chicago and graduated from Northwestern and Georgetown. His language skills earned him an invite from the CIA, where he served for 28 years in a senior role in Moscow, Ukraine, Poland, India, Pakistan and Afghanistan.
After retirement, he and Carole moved to the Boothbay area. He is involved in private business consulting for American and Ukrainian cyber security firms.
So, why should we care about Ukraine and what Russia wants to do with them? Paul says the answer is simple. It is the largest country in Europe, with more than 40 million people.
They want to be part of the Western economy. “They value what the U.S. stands for,” he said. One of the reasons Ukrainians resist and resent the Russians is because Josef Stalin, the Russian Communist leader, starved the Ukrainian people.
In the 1930s, Stalin ordered the farmers off their lands, and individual holdings became collective farms. Russians then made them farm the land, confiscated the crops, and then starved the farmers. About 3.9 million Ukrainians starved to death.
The memory of those times has been handed down through generations.
In 2014, the Ukrainian citizens rioted and deposed the Russian puppet government and installed a democratic government. That year, there were riots in Moscow as Russian citizens objected to an election they claimed was rigged for Vladimir Putin.
Putin was not amused and blamed the riots on American officials.
“He just can’t abide the idea that the Ukrainian people want to join with the West,” said Zalucky.
American officials have told Putin they will impose sanctions on his nation if he invades Ukraine, but they have not said what they would do. Zalucky said two things might happen. First, the Americans are very good at tracking money, and Russian business leaders have billions of assets in France, London and the U.S. Let’s say that the wives and mistresses of Russian oligarchs were no longer able to jet off to Paris to buy a new handbag, said Zalucky. That could put pressure on Putin.
He also said American officials have revealed a lot of information about possible Russian military plans and objects. Much of that information most likely came from our surveillance aircraft.
If there is a military invasion, the Russians would probably try to shoot down these planes and drones. If American pilots and aircrew members die, it would take this situation to another level.
Putin may have picked this time to act because he believed the U.S. was weak and no longer able to keep NATO states together, he said. The opposite has happened as France, Germany and the United Kingdom have united in their pledge to stand firm against Putin’s threats against Ukraine.
Zalucky believes Putin will not launch a major military ground invasion. Instead, he will probably use artillery, missiles and cyber weapons to attack Ukraine. That way, Putin won't be forced to report heavy Russian casualties. And he won’t have to face their grieving relatives and, possibly, a very angry public.
In any event, he is trying to change the world order that has kept the peace since the end of World War II.
“This is a very, very dangerous situation,” Zalucky said.